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The Monday Morning Memo

Old lady: You are always wishing people good luck and telling them about their mistakes and it seems to me you criticize them very meanly. How is it, young man, that you talk so much and write so long about these bullfights and yet are not a bullfighter yourself? Why did you not take up this profession if you liked it so much and think you know so much about it?

Madame, I tried it in its simplest phases but without success. I was too old, too heavy and too awkward. Also, my figure was the wrong shape, being thick in all the places where it should be lithe and in the ring I served as little else than target or punching dummy for the bulls.

Old lady: Did they not wound you in horrible fashion? Why are you alive today?

Madame, the tips of their horns were covered or blunted or I should have been opened up like a sewing basket.

Old lady: So you fought bulls with covered horns. I had thought better of you.

Fought is an exaggeration, Madame. I did not fight them but was merely tossed about.

Old lady: Did you ever have experience with bulls with naked horns? Did they not wound you grievously?

I have been in the ring with such bulls and was unwounded though much bruised since when I had compromised myself through awkwardness I would fall onto the bull’s muzzle clinging to his horns as the figure clings in the old picture of the Rock of Ages and with equal passion. This caused great hilarity among the spectators.

Ernest Hemingway, Death in the Afternoon, p. 171-172

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Random Quote:

“University of Pennsylvania psychologist Philip Tetlock made a 20-year study that tested the ability of experts to make accurate predictions about geopolitical events. The results showed that the average expert in a given subject was also, on average, a horrific forecaster. Some of the most narrowly specialized experts actually performed worse as they accumulated credentials. It seemed that the more vested they were in a worldview, the more easily they could always find information to fit it.

There was, however, one subgroup of scholars that did markedly better: those who were not intellectually anchored to a narrow area of expertise. They did not hide from contrary and apparently contradictory views, but rather crossed disciplines and political boundaries to seek them out.

Tetlock gave the forecasters nicknames, borrowed from a well-known philosophy essay: the narrow-view hedgehogs, who ‘know one big thing’ (and are terrible forecasters), and the broad-minded foxes, who ‘know many little things’ (and make better predictions). The latter group’s hunt for information was a bit like a real fox’s hunt for prey: They roam freely, listen carefully and consume omnivorously.

Eventually, Tetlock and his collaborator, Barbara Mellers, assembled a team of foxy volunteers, drawn from the general public, to compete in a forecasting tournament. Their volunteers trounced a group of intelligence analysts who had access to classified information. As Tetlock observed of the best forecasters, it is not what they think but how they think. They argue differently; foxes frequently used the word ‘however’ in assessing ideas, while hedgehogs tended toward ‘moreover.’ Foxes also looked far beyond the bounds of the problem at hand for clues from other, similar situations.”

- David Epstein, The Washington Post, July 20, 2019

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